The Gallup Poll, founded in 1935, has served as a resource for the American people to gain a better understanding of public opinion through random sampling.
George Horace Gallup, a public opinion statistician from Jefferson, Iowa, established a method of public opinion sample surveys, later named Gallup Polls. After teaching journalism at Drake University from 1929 to 1931, and then at Northwestern University from 1931 to 1932, Gallup founded the American Institution of Public Opinion in 1935. The organization conducted nationwide surveys of opinion on political, economic, and social issues in the United States. Combined with a more scientific method of polling called probability sampling, the Gallup Poll randomly selected a small sample of people who, if selected correctly, represented the opinions of a larger group of people. National Gallup Polls aimed to “present the opinions of a sample of people which are exactly the same opinions that would have been obtained had it been possible to interview all adult Americans in the country.” To reach this goal, Gallup developed the principle of the equal probability of selection. This assumed that if each member of a population had an equal likelihood of being selected, the resulting sample would represent the whole population.
The Gallup Poll, while performing a variety of surveys, was most famous for pre-election surveys. The 1936 presidential election brought public attention to Gallup’s organization when Gallup accurately predicted the victory of Franklin D. Roosevelt over Alfred M. Landon for U. S. president. Despite wrongly predicting the victory of Thomas E. Dewey over Harry S. Truman in the 1948 presidential election, the Gallup Polls continued to survey voters in subsequent presidential elections and developed a reputation for accuracy.
Gallup employed a specific process to ensure every American equal opportunity of “falling into the sample.” Beginning in 1935, Gallup representatives conducted the earliest polls in person, scattering across the nation to interview people door-to-door. For nearly 50 years, this was the standard interviewing method until telephones became common in households and phone interviews replaced the in-person approach.
Generally, the target audience focused on those persons 18 years of age and older, labeled “national adults,” who lived in noninstitutional environments. With the audience established, Gallup decided on the number of interviews to be conducted. Next, Gallup went to far-reaching lengths to make contact with the specific, randomly chosen adults living in American households. If the randomly selected adult was not at home, the interviewer returned at a later date to question that individual.
Wording questions utilized in polling proved the most difficult aspect of conducting the surveys. Compiling clear, unbiased questions required attention and sensitivity, as well as a thorough understanding of current issues and public opinion. Specific wording of a question could very easily affect the manner in which an individual answered a question. To Gallup’s credit, however, he consistently posed a question exactly as it was written. He contended that, “if the exact wording of a question is held constant from year to year, then substantial changes in how the American public responds to that question usually represent an underlying change in attitude.” Gallup intended always to present the polls objectively and accurately.
Gallup conducted public opinion polls on presidential approval, public policy, and various key issues. He asked the public for opinions on many issues, including presidential proposals such as social security, questions on family life, civil defense, foreign aid, the federal budget, American prestige, armed forces, and the role religion and church played in the household. On January 17, 1949, for example, Gallup asked the public, “Have you heard about the civil rights program suggested by Truman?” Of those queried, 64 percent had heard about the program while 36 percent had not. Of those who had heard of the program, Gallup followed up with, “Do you think Congress should or should not pass the program as a whole?” To this question 27 percent responded positively, while 22 percent said no, and 15 percent had no opinion. Gallup asked other questions concerning public opinion on the Taet-Hartley Act, noncommunist oaths, whether or not all members
Of the Communist Party should be removed from jobs in the United States, and whether or not people felt Senator Joseph R. McCarthy should be censured for his anticommunist actions and accusations.
The Gallup Poll intended to “amplify the voice of the public,” not distort it. People throughout the United States still rely on the polls to gain an understanding of public opinion and to forecast patterns of voting.
Further reading: George Horace Gallup, The Pulse of American Democracy: The Public Opinion Poll and How It Works (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1940).
—Susan F. Yates
World History
