Trends

Several trends continued from mid-twentieth century through the end of the century. They include population increase, migration to the United States, and rural-to-urban migration.

This last trend, rural-to-urban migration, dates back to the nineteenth century. It has been driven by population increase, rural job loss, and higher wages and better employment opportunities in urban areas. Between 1970 and 2000, the rural population fell from 41.3 percent of Mexico’s total population to 25.3 percent. During this period, due to increased population, the rural population actually rose from 19.9 million to 24.6 million.195

Another long-term trend is an increase in the percentage of the workforce in the service sector, which includes commerce. In 1910, only 14.2 per cent of the workforce was employed in the service sector. By 2008, this figure had increased to 56.4 percent.196

Another trend is the massive expansion of the informal sector. The informal sector includes a wide variety of employment, such as ambulatory vendors, domestics, and street-corner services (shoe-shiners, for example). The defining characteristic of the informal sector is that it produces goods (such as tamales for sale on the street) or services (such as washing windshields at traffic lights) that are legal. However, it is distinct from what is often called the formal sector in that some or all regulations governing trade unions, the minimum wage, social security, taxes, and health and safety regulations are not observed.197

Four factors have driven millions into the informal sector. As Mexicans come of age, their number far exceeds the number of jobs created in the formal sector. As wages declined in the 1980s, there was little monetary incentive to obtain a factory job rather than a job in the informal sector. High social security taxes deter the hiring of low-skilled labor with formal contracts. Instead, such workers obtain informal employment. Finally, the cost and time required to obtain the legally required licenses to operate a business have led many to bypass these requirements.198

During the boom years, 1950 to 1980, the informal sector shrank from 37.4 percent to 35 percent of the workforce as formal job creation exceeded new entrants to the labor force. Between

1980 and 1994 this trend was reversed as only 3.7 million formal-sector jobs were created in that time, but almost 1 million young people entered the labor force annually. Between 1989 and 2005, more than 70 percent of new job creation was in the informal sector.199

Since 1978, it has been government policy to encourage growth in mid-sized cities rather than the traditional big three—Mexico City, Monterrey, and Guadalajara. Government policy and the increasing dysfunctionality of these three cities led to the growth of mid-sized cities. Also, as factories moved north to be close to the U. S. market, industrial administration, which frequently remained in Mexico City, became spatially separated from industrial production. In 1970, 3.1 percent of Mexico’s urban population lived in the one city in the 500,000 to 999,999 range, while by 2000,

17.1 percent of the population lived in the seventeen cities in that range. In 2000, there were sixty cities in the 100,000 to 999,999 population range. During the 1990s, they grew at 2.6 percent annually—faster than the three largest cities or the nation as a whole.200

As has occurred throughout Latin America, criminality in Mexico has been increasing. A 2007 poll found “delinquency and insecurity” was considered to be the greatest problem facing Mexico. As increasing numbers of young males from impoverished families have no prospect of improving their station in life, they engage in illegal and often violent acts to redistribute wealth and income. High crime rates have led to a proliferation of private security forces and gated communities, especially in the Federal District.201