One potential conflict among China, Great Britain, the United States, and other Western countries was avoided during the 1990's when the British decided to return Hong Kong to China in 1997. A century and a half earlier, Britain had seized the southeast China port city after defeating China in the Opium Wars. In the late 1890's it had forced China to lease it additional land, the so-called New Territories, which it attached to Hong Kong to make more space for its rapidly growing population. Through most of the twentieth century Britain governed Hong Kong as a Crown Colony and watched both its population and capitalist economy boom.
To China's government, having its lost territories returned to it was an important matter of national pride— especially after the People's Republic of China was created in 1949. However, China never attempted to retake the territories by force. Those who like to emphasize the peaceful nature of the Chinese people point out that China could have renounced its unfair treaties with Britain at virtually any time and reclaimed Hong Kong long before the British lease on the New Territories ran out in 1997. Hong Kong's great distance from Britain and its closeness to China would have made any British defense against a Chinese invasion almost impossible. In any case, Hong Kong was entirely dependent on the People's Republic of China for its fresh water supply, and the Chinese government could
Have simply cut off that supply at any time.
Under international law, China's legal claims to Hong Kong and the New Territories were strong. Through peaceful negotiation, China persuaded Britain to hand over the colonies on July 1,1997. Not only was one potential conflict removed, but also, some argue, the Chinese gained self-confidence by successfully asserting their claim by peaceful means.
Despite this development, it remains possible that Hong Kong might yet become a source of domestic political conflict if Hong Kong's pro-Western residents push for political liberalization faster than Chinese authorities in Beijing are willing to allow. Since the British never really allowed Hong Kong's people true representative democracy until just shortly before they returned Hong Kong to China, it would be incorrect to say that the colony's people had "democracy" taken from them by China. It is true that the British allowed a more liberal regime than is common in the rest of China, but so far Beijing has allowed considerable freedom in Hong Kong. Were Hong Kong to become too assertive, or should Beijing become too restrictive, the calm prevailing in the years immediately following Hong Kong's return to China might be disrupted. This is even more likely if there were a major economic downturn, but, in this sense, Hong Kong faces the same difficulty as the rest of China.
Fear of possible loss of power, also led it to repression of potential rivals. In December, 1998, for example, Chinese authorities imprisoned leaders of the China Democracy Party. The party tended to see religious organizations as particularly threatening challenges to official ideology. On July 22,1999, the Chinese government banned the Falun Gong, a religious sect that blended elements of Buddhist and Taoist beliefs. Over the following years, many Falun Gong members were imprisoned and reportedly tortured and executed. The government also suppressed religious activities among Roman Catholics and evangelical Christians.
Given China's size and its economic growth in the latter half of the twentieth century, it is not unreasonable to expect China eventually to become the world's largest economy. However, this prediction may rest on overly optimistic predictions. Nothing guarantees that China will not endure economic downturns, po-
Hong Kong harbor. (Japan Airlines)
Litical instability, or even serious environmental crises. While focusing heavily on economic growth, China has not paid much attention to the condition of its environment, allowing dangerous practices to damage its land, air, and water supplies.
The Han ethnic group constitutes 94 percent of the total Chinese population. The non-Han minority people make up the remaining 6 percent, or 80 million people. This number is larger than the population of any Western European nation. Given the tensions between the Chinese and such minority groups as Tibetan and Turkic people, the possibility for large domestic ethnic struggle also exists.
World History
