Many social indicators of well-being began to “deteriorate” in the 1960s and 1970s. Between 1950 and 1980 births to unmarried women as a percentage of all births rose from 3.9 percent to 18.4 percent; the divorce rate per 1,000 people rose from 2.6 to 5.2; and the murder rate per 100,000 rose from about 5 to 10.2. Admittedly, the exact meanings of these changes were hard to determine. The increase in the proportion of births to unmarried women, for example, may partly reflect changes in social norms. We can see
The effect of differences in social norms by looking at the international variance in this measure. In 1992, the U. S. proportion stood at 30 percent, less than Sweden (50 percent) but more than the Netherlands (12 percent) or Japan (1 percent). Social norms may also influence the reporting of variables as well as their true levels. Indeed, in some cases, one could argue that part of the trend represented an increase in well-being—some people may be happier divorcing rather than remaining married merely because of strong social pressures to do so. But for many people, these trends signaled a deterioration in values that was deeply disturbing.
In an important book addressed to this concern, The Fourth Great Awakening (2000), economic historian Robert W. Fogel argued that the attempt to ensure that all citizens have the spiritual resources to achieve a meaningful life may be the greatest challenge of the twenty-first century.120 By spiritual, Fogel does not mean only religious values, although they are part of what he has in mind. He means to include as well other values and cultural traditions that help people cope with life and find a meaningful path.
What are some of the issues that the nation will face that will require spiritual as well as material resources to solve? The truly disadvantaged will require material resources to meet the demands of daily living. Will that be enough? Will they also need help finding a meaningful role in society? Retirement for most people will probably lengthen. How will society provide for meaningful activities for retirees, and how will it address the depression that often afflicts older people? On the other hand, in some sectors of the economy, such as academia, retirement may be delayed. How will young people in these sectors cope with years of delay before they take their place in the sun? As more women and minorities enter the workplace, how will society break the glass ceilings that prevent them from reaching the highest levels in business and government? As Americans become increasingly aware of the world outside the boundaries of the United States, how will Americans cope with the great international disparities in material income? Not one of these questions is easily answered; all of them require new ways of thinking about our economy and society.
World History
