In dealing with Tupian chronology a relative pottery sequence is rejected because the ceramic series have not provided accurate datings. Rather, glottochronology and absolute dating (radiocarbon, thermoluminiscence) are more reliable.
According to Rodrigues’ (1958, 1964) glottochronological datings, Proto-Tupi, the language in which the components of the Tupian stock originated, was formed around 5,000 years ago; the Tupi-Guarani family was formed some 2,500 years later. Absolute dates show that the Guarani inhabited Parana and Rio Grande do Sul at least 2,200 years ago; the Tupi-namba were in Piaui, Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro as early as 1,800 years ago. Several radiocarbon and thermoluminescence dates later than AD 1 are known for sites in the Amazon and Parana-Paraguay basins, Rio Grande do Sul, Atlantic coast, and coastal rivers (Brochado 1973, 1984; Brochado and Lathrap 1982; Scatamacchia 1990). These dates are much older than what was envisioned by early ethnographers who had posited a quick expansion, close to the time of the Europeans, with the cultural uniformity of the Tupi materializing just before the break-up of Tupian groups towards the sixteenth century.
There are few absolute dates compared to the number of sites. Dating is unequally distributed in the regions occupied by the Tupi. Nevertheless, these radiocarbon dates show that the expansion and differentiation of some people was not recent. The dates suggest we should date the expansion of the Tupi-Guarani family much earlier than 2,500 years ago.
Three regions provide dates close to AD 1: Santa Maria-RS, about AD 150; Ivar River-PR, about AD 100; lower Tiete-SP, about AD 232; Sao Raimundo Nonato-Pl, about AD 260; coast of Rio de Janeiro, about AD 300. Some of these datings are isolated; others are part of sequences that reach historic times. ln regions far from the proposed centers of origin—in deep southern Brazil, the northeast, coastal Rio de Janeiro—the dates attest to the antiquity of the expansions, and can be related to linguistic derivations. The few dates available for Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia are all later than the tenth century (Brochado 1984). In Peru and its neighboring Brazilian regions, the pottery associated with the Kokama, Omagua and Kokamiya still needs detailed study.
Other regions also yield dates close to the oldest: in the Mogi-guagu River about AD 400; coast of Rio de Janeiro, about AD 440; Santa Maria-RS, about AD 475; middle Ivai-PR, about AD 460 (and an early date of AD 70); lower Tiete-SP, about AD 578.
Dates closer to the present occur in several parts of eastern South America. On the southeastern and northeastern coast of Brazil we have: lower Tiete-SP, about AD 668; Curimatau-RN, about AD 800; coast of Rio de Janeiro, about AD 870; Cricare-ES, about AD 895; Guaratiba-RJ, about AD 980.
So the Tupian people were already spread over Brazil as early as 2,000 years ago, in regions very distant from one another and from the proposed centers of origin. This renders obsolete earlier ideas (i. e., Martius’ account, repeated by many scholars), of a quick Tupian expansion shortly before the European arrival.